Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension triggered by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare
The chain of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, political struggles are fought: optimistic declarations are delivered from different nations. Significant resources is expended on restraining specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "peace".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from enemy soil, a capability enabled by up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to engage hostile aerial threats flew past – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by European allies.
Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: multiple launches deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably provided by Western nations. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: maybe the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a automatic firearm opened up on a drone somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its target.
With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: multiple fatalities, damage and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a reliance that regional partners are evidently unprepared to replace in the near term.
Failed Diplomacy
The comprehensive proposal from American leadership provoked deep reactions, discussion and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.
Every new initiative from American administration unfolds according to the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, no doubt, persist.
Strategic Calculations
It is tempting to accuse specific actors of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration works based on a assumption understood by international relations experts: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration believes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to abandon the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.
The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does minimal to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the situation will not change more in its favour in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the outcome.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but averting a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its favour.
Existing Situation
Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: personal goals to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not shift toward homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a only one week to kill the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.
While new plans based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, primarily depend on sustained allied backing.
