A decade after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that divided the nation and caused turmoil, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely divided society where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of serious debate, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in academia but hardly any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators supports unity or the status quo. Each writes two pieces that aim for neutrality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented the writer. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the idea that there might be valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they favour unification but reject increased taxation or adopting a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid arguments, he commented. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will eventually lose but each side has possesses important lessons to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, said O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
